A full-field statistical breakdown of the John Deere Classic — powered by Edge Sniper's golf analytics model, covering Win, Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 projections for every player in the field.
Every PGA Tour event now gets the same treatment inside Edge Sniper: a full-field probability model, updated automatically each week of the season, compared directly against live sportsbook pricing to surface where the market and the model disagree. Here's this week's complete breakdown for the John Deere Classic.
Based on Edge Sniper's baseline-plus-course-history model, Ben Griffin enters the week as the field's top statistical favorite, with Chris Gotterup and Keith Mitchell rounding out the top three by win probability. Below is the model's full projection for the top of the field across every major finish market: Win, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, and Make Cut probability.
| # | Player | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % | Top 20 % | Make Cut % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Griffin | 5.23% | 19.27% | 31.56% | 48.16% | 80.86% |
| 2 | Chris Gotterup | 4.97% | 17.18% | 28.07% | 43.52% | 77.32% |
| 3 | Keith Mitchell | 3.61% | 14.02% | 24.04% | 38.90% | 75.11% |
| 4 | Keegan Bradley | 3.42% | 13.61% | 23.36% | 38.50% | 75.04% |
| 5 | Jackson Koivun | 3.17% | 12.55% | 21.79% | 36.40% | 73.79% |
| 6 | Jacob Bridgeman | 2.78% | 11.50% | 20.44% | 34.35% | 72.86% |
| 7 | Jordan Spieth | 2.76% | 11.63% | 20.51% | 34.92% | 72.93% |
| 8 | J.T. Poston | 2.57% | 11.07% | 19.76% | 34.04% | 72.68% |
| 9 | Andrew Novak | 2.18% | 9.48% | 17.33% | 30.31% | 69.54% |
| 10 | Ryo Hisatsune | 2.17% | 9.49% | 17.35% | 30.77% | 70.55% |
A model favorite isn't always the best value — the real signal comes from comparing modeled probability against the actual price being offered at the sportsbook. Here's where Edge Sniper's model shows the widest gap between its own projection and the market this week, across the four major finish-position markets.
| Market | Player | Best Book | Odds | Model Prob | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | Andrew Novak | DraftKings | +5000 | 2.20% | +11.2% |
| Top 5 | Andrew Novak | DraftKings | +1100 | 9.50% | +13.7% |
| Top 10 | Andrew Novak | DraftKings | +540 | 17.30% | +10.9% |
| Top 20 | Brice Garnett | FanDuel | +850 | 11.50% | +9.2% |
Novak stands out this week not because he's the field's outright favorite, but because he's showing a consistent statistical edge across three separate markets at once — Win, Top 5, and Top 10. Ranked #9 in the field by model win probability, he's a legitimate contender the market appears to be underpricing across the board, not just in a single isolated line.
Edge Sniper's golf analytics run on a baseline-plus-course-history statistical model, refreshed automatically for every PGA Tour event throughout the season — not just the majors. Each week, the model generates a full-field probability projection across five outcome markets (Win, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, and Make Cut), then cross-references those projections against live pricing from major regulated sportsbooks to identify where the biggest statistical gaps exist.
This isn't a one-off prediction — it's a full-season system that updates weekly as fields, course fit, and recent form change from tournament to tournament.
Edge Sniper's golf module just launched and is currently free during our soft-launch period. Get full-field projections and weekly value plays for every PGA Tour event, sent straight to you.
GET FREE ACCESS →Ben Griffin holds the highest win probability in Edge Sniper's model this week, followed by Chris Gotterup and Keith Mitchell.
Andrew Novak grades out as the model's top value play, showing a positive statistical edge across the Win, Top 5, and Top 10 markets at DraftKings.
Edge Sniper's golf model refreshes automatically every week of the PGA Tour season, not just for majors — every tournament gets a full-field projection update.
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